A launch brief that makes the commercial assumptions visible

Most launch briefs cover message and channels but hide the numbers the launch depends on. A one-page format with assumptions, break-even arithmetic and a premortem.

Most launch briefs describe the product, the audience, the message and the channels. Few spell out the commercial assumptions that must hold for the launch to pay back.

That omission matters. When results disappoint, nobody can say which belief was wrong, so the next launch repeats the mistake.

This article sets out a one-page launch brief that puts those assumptions in plain view.

Why assumptions stay hidden

Optimism is a known problem in business planning. Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman argued in Harvard Business Review in 2003 that executives routinely overestimate benefits and underestimate costs in major initiatives.

Their recommended correction was to take an “outside view”: compare the plan with the actual results of similar past projects, rather than building the forecast only from the plan’s own details.

Writing assumptions down is the simplest way to make that comparison possible.

Borrow the discipline of a written narrative

Amazon’s Working Backwards process is one well-documented model. In an excerpt published by Amazon, former executives Colin Bryar and Bill Carr describe the PR/FAQ: a mock press release of under a page and an FAQ of five pages or less.

The FAQ is meant to give a “clear-eyed and thorough assessment” of how expensive and challenging the product will be to build. They say it is common for a team to write ten drafts or more.

They also note that most PR/FAQs were never launched. In their view, that is “a feature, not a bug,” because it saves resources for the best ideas.

A launch brief can borrow the same idea: write it short, write it early and expect it to be challenged.

The one-page launch brief

Use six sections. Keep each one short enough to read on a phone.

1. The customer and the problem

Who is the first buyer, specifically? What are they doing today instead, and why would they switch?

2. The offer

What is being launched, at what price, in which markets and through which channels?

3. The commercial assumptions

This is the section most briefs skip. List the five to eight numbers the launch depends on. For example:

• Number of target accounts or customers reached.
• Conversion rate from first contact to trial or demo.
• Conversion rate from trial to paid.
• Average price or contract value after discounts.
• Cost to acquire each customer.
• Retention or repeat purchase rate at six or twelve months.

For each one, note the source: past data, a comparable launch, a test or a guess. Mark guesses honestly.

4. The break-even arithmetic

Show how the assumptions combine. One short calculation is enough.

5. The kill and scale criteria

State in advance what result would cause you to stop, change course or invest more. Put a date on each review.

6. The premortem

List the most likely reasons the launch failed, as if it already had.

A worked example

The following example is hypothetical, and the arithmetic is illustrative.

A Polish IT services firm plans to launch a fixed-price cybersecurity review for mid-sized manufacturers. The price is €12,000. Launch marketing is budgeted at €90,000.

The brief lists its assumptions:

• 600 target companies reached through events and outbound campaigns.
• 10% agree to a discovery call: 60 calls.
• 25% of calls convert to a paid review: 15 reviews.
• 40% gross margin on each review: €4,800 per review.

At those numbers, 15 reviews produce €72,000 of gross margin. That does not cover the €90,000 marketing budget from the first sale alone.

The brief therefore depends on a further assumption: that a share of review clients buy ongoing services. If 5 of the 15 sign a €30,000 annual contract at 40% margin, that adds €60,000 of gross margin in year one.

Now the launch looks viable, but only if that follow-on rate holds. The brief has done its job. It has shown leadership which number to watch.

Run the premortem

Gary Klein’s premortem method, described in HBR in 2007, asks a team to imagine the project has already failed and then explain why.

Klein’s point is that this makes it safer for informed doubters to speak up during planning, when problems are cheaper to fix.

In practice, give the team ten minutes to write reasons privately, then share them. Add the strongest ones to the brief, with an owner for each.

Set the review dates

Assumptions are only useful if someone checks them. Schedule three reviews:

• Early signal, around four weeks in: are reach and first-stage conversion close to plan?
• Mid-point, around three months: are paid conversions and price holding?
• Retention check, around six to twelve months: are customers staying or buying again?

At each review, mark every assumption as confirmed, revised or broken.

Common mistakes

Hiding the guesses. A guess written as a fact cannot be challenged.

Using averages from other businesses. A benchmark is a starting point. Your own past results, or a small test, are better.

No kill criteria. Without them, a struggling launch tends to drift on.

Forgetting retention. Many launches look profitable only if customers stay or buy again.

The test of a good brief

A good launch brief does not predict the future. It makes clear which beliefs the plan rests on, so the team can learn quickly when one turns out to be wrong.