Evaluate a viral idea before approving its budget

Volvo Trucks' Epic Split demonstrated a real product feature and won 20 Cannes Lions; Pepsi's protest ad was withdrawn in a day. Five questions to ask before funding a viral idea.

Every few months, someone proposes a marketing idea designed to go viral. The pitch is exciting, and the downside rarely gets the same attention.

Two well-documented cases show the range of outcomes. One B2B video became one of the most celebrated campaigns of its decade. One consumer ad was withdrawn within days.

When it worked: Volvo Trucks

In 2013, Volvo Trucks, the Swedish truck maker, launched a series of short “Live Test” videos on YouTube. Each demonstrated a feature of its new trucks in a dramatic way.

The best known, The Epic Split, showed actor Jean-Claude Van Damme doing the splits between two reversing trucks to demonstrate the precision of Volvo’s steering.

In a June 2014 press release, Volvo Trucks said the series had more than 100 million views on YouTube and had been shared nearly 8 million times. The Epic Split alone had more than 73 million views.

It said a survey found almost half of the truck buyers who had seen the launch videos were now more likely to choose Volvo next time. It estimated the publicity was worth €126 million in earned media value, and said the campaign won 20 Cannes Lions awards.

Why it worked

The agency behind the campaign, Forsman & Bodenfors, describes the brief on its website. Volvo Trucks was launching new models and wanted to grow market share, while making a significant price increase.

The agency says it realised many influencers shaped the purchase decision, and that it needed bold creative to make up for limited media budgets.

Its creative principle is the important part: each stunt tested a relevant product feature, live, with a result that could not be guaranteed. The spectacle served the product, not the other way round.

The agency reports that Volvo’s market share grew by three percentage points despite the price increase. That is the agency’s own account; it is evidence, but not independent.

When it failed: Pepsi

In April 2017, Pepsi released an ad in which model Kendall Jenner joined a street protest and handed a police officer a can of Pepsi. It was widely criticised for trivialising protest movements.

PepsiCo withdrew the ad the next day. Its statement said: “Pepsi was trying to project a global message of unity, peace and understanding. Clearly we missed the mark, and we apologize.”

The company said it was removing the content and halting further rollout. It also apologised for putting Jenner in that position.

What separates the two

This is our analysis rather than either company’s.

Relevance to the product. Volvo’s stunt demonstrated steering precision. Pepsi’s ad borrowed a serious social issue that had nothing to do with a soft drink.

Respect for the audience. Volvo’s videos rewarded viewers with genuine spectacle. Pepsi’s ad was read as using a cause for commercial gain.

Who was really being addressed. Volvo spoke to truck buyers and the people around them. Pepsi aimed for a broad emotional message and found a far less forgiving audience.

Five questions before you approve a viral idea

Use these before any budget is committed.

1. Does the idea demonstrate something true about what we sell?

If the idea would work equally well for a competitor, or for a different product category, it is probably borrowing attention rather than earning it.

2. Who will see it, beyond the target audience?

Viral content travels to people you did not intend to reach. Ask how journalists, activists, employees and competitors would describe it.

3. What is the worst plausible reading?

Ask someone outside the team to describe the idea in the most critical way they can. If that description would make a damaging headline, change the idea.

4. What happens if it gets no attention at all?

Most content designed to go viral does not. The idea should still be worth its cost if it reaches only the core audience.

5. How will we measure success beyond views?

Define the business result first: enquiries, dealer visits, share of consideration or sales. Volvo reported purchase intention and market share, not just views.

Set a budget that matches the uncertainty

Viral outcomes are unpredictable. Fund the idea at a level you would accept losing, and keep money in reserve to amplify it if it works.

Hypothetical: a Finnish forestry equipment maker approves €80,000 for a stunt video showing a harvester working in extreme cold. It holds back €40,000 for paid promotion and dealer events only if early engagement among buyers is strong.

The figures are illustrative. The principle is to spend in stages.

Prepare the response plan

Before launch, agree who can pause the content and how quickly. Write a short holding statement in case the idea is misread.

Pepsi withdrew its ad quickly once the reaction became clear. A plan made in advance makes that decision faster and calmer.

Brief the agency differently

The brief shapes the idea. A brief that asks for “something that goes viral” invites spectacle for its own sake.

Instead, brief on the product truth you want to prove and the people who influence the purchase. Forsman & Bodenfors describes truck buyers as a mix of fleet managers, drivers, procurement and finance people, who seek advice from colleagues, workshops and even family.

That description of the buying network is what made a broad, entertaining idea commercially relevant. Most B2B purchases involve a similar circle of influencers.

The board’s question

Viral ideas are tempting because the upside is visible and the downside feels unlikely. Present both, along with what the idea will achieve if it never goes viral at all.